Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
